Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Saints ARI @ NO

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

0-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

0-0  |  Home

13
Key Game
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
@
Jaylan Ford
KEY GAME

Jaylan Ford

#53 | Linebacker
Player
Blake Gillikin None-None
Jaylan Ford None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
CARDINALS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (New Orleans)
CardinalsARI (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

49.2%

Saints Cover

50.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

ARI By 1-6 points

16.4%

ARI By 7-13 points

15.2%

NO By 1-6 points

16.5%

NO By 7-13 points

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
15.49
ARIZONA
15.78
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA
27
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 ARI @ NO 20 - 13
Oct 20, 2022 NO @ ARI 34 - 42
Oct 27, 2019 ARI @ NO 9 - 31
Dec 18, 2016 NO @ ARI 48 - 41
Sep 13, 2015 NO @ ARI 19 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.4% more
Arizona: 147.2 vs New Orleans: 81.8
First Downs (L5) +30.1% more
Arizona: 23.7 vs New Orleans: 16.6
Total Yards (L5) +27.8% more
Arizona: 386.1 vs New Orleans: 278.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.7% more
Arizona: 5.9 vs New Orleans: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 15.5 20
NO Score 15.8 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 23.7 21.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 196.9 / 238.9 208.0 / 130.0
Rushing Yards 81.8 / 147.2 107.0 / 146.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 278.7 / 386.1 315.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.9 4.6 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
ARI
NO
ARI
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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