Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Patriots LV @ NE

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

0-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

0-0  |  Home

13
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
RAIDERS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Las Vegas)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

54.9%

Patriots Cover

45.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LV -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

LV By 1-6 points

16.8%

LV By 7-13 points

16.6%

NE By 1-6 points

15.8%

NE By 7-13 points

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.15
LAS VEGAS
21.42
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
20
LAS VEGAS
24
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raiders (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 LV @ NE 20 - 13
Oct 15, 2023 NE @ LV 17 - 21
Dec 18, 2022 NE @ LV 24 - 30
Sep 27, 2020 LV @ NE 20 - 36
Nov 19, 2017 NE @ LV 33 - 8
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +15.5% more
Las Vegas: 229.1 vs New England: 193.6
Turnovers (L5) +42.0% more
New England: 1.4 vs Las Vegas: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.3% more
New England: 104.4 vs Las Vegas: 81.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 23.2 20
NE Score 21.4 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 18.6 18.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 193.6 / 229.1 276.0 / 333.0
Rushing Yards 104.4 / 81.4 60.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.29 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 297.9 / 310.5 336.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.1 4.9 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
LV
NE
LV
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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