Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Chargers KC @ LAC

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

0-0  |  Road

21
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Corinthians Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Alohi Gilman
KEY GAME

Alohi Gilman

#17 | Safety
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Alohi Gilman None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
100%
📊
CHARGERS
0%
CHIEFS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Los Angeles)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

49.1%

Chargers Cover

50.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.4%

KC By 7-13 points

15.1%

LAC By 1-6 points

16.5%

LAC By 7-13 points

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.52
KANSAS CITY
21.85
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS CITY
31
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 LAC @ KC 16 - 13
Sep 5, 2025 KC @ LAC 21 - 27
Dec 8, 2024 LAC @ KC 17 - 19
Sep 29, 2024 KC @ LAC 17 - 10
Jan 7, 2024 KC @ LAC 13 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.8% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs Kansas City: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.9% more
Los Angeles: 95.0 vs Kansas City: 76.0
First Downs (L5) +21.5% more
Los Angeles: 20.6 vs Kansas City: 17.0
Total Yards (L5) +21.0% more
Los Angeles: 344.6 vs Kansas City: 284.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 21.5 21
LAC Score 21.9 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 17.0 22.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 249.6 / 208.6 304.0 / 249.0
Rushing Yards 95.0 / 76.0 90.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 344.6 / 284.6 394.0 / 347.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.2 6.4 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
KC
LAC
KC
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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