Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Eagles DAL @ PHI

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

0-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Thu, Sep 4 • 8:20 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

0-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
COWBOYS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.4 points (Philadelphia)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

20.7%

Eagles Cover

79.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -11.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

DAL By 1-6 points

9.7%

DAL By 7-13 points

6.3%

PHI By 1-6 points

14.5%

PHI By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
19.3
DALLAS
30.73
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
24
DALLAS
27
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.4
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 PHI @ DAL 21 - 24
Sep 4, 2025 DAL @ PHI 20 - 24
Dec 29, 2024 DAL @ PHI 7 - 41
Nov 10, 2024 PHI @ DAL 34 - 6
Dec 10, 2023 PHI @ DAL 13 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.1% more
Philadelphia: 182.9 vs Dallas: 126.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.6% more
Philadelphia: 5.6 vs Dallas: 5.1
First Downs (L5) +8.9% more
Philadelphia: 21.3 vs Dallas: 19.6
Total Yards (L5) +8.6% more
Philadelphia: 365.0 vs Dallas: 336.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 19.3 20
PHI Score 30.7 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 19.6 20.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 182.2 / 209.3 144.0 / 188.0
Rushing Yards 182.9 / 126.9 158.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 365.0 / 336.2 302.0 / 307.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.1 4.9 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DAL
PHI
DAL
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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