Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Giants SD @ SF

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

33-24  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Jun 2 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

33-26  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 2.45 -- 0.1 1
Logan Webb None-None 2.55 -- 8.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 Ldr ERA 2.55
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 8.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
📊
GIANTS
100%
PADRES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

73.6%

Giants Cover

26.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.2%

SF By 1-2 runs

12.0%

SF By 3-4 runs

6.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.87
SAN DIEGO
2.35
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SD @ SF 6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026 SF @ SD 4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026 SF @ SD 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925 ▲
OPS
.706
4
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +31.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season) +21.9%
San Diego: 92.5% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Slugging Pct (Season) +16.3%
San Diego: 56.3% vs San Francisco: 40.0%
Home Runs (L5) +11.0% more
San Diego: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.9 1
SF Score 2.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 6.2 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 9.8 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 10.2 5.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.7 0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SD
SF
SD
ML
49% 79-81
51% 85-83
53% 85-75
51% 85-82
ATS
62% 100-60
54% 91-77
52% 83-77
55% 92-75
TTL
55% 82-68-10
51% 82-80-6
46% 68-81-11
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
foxnews 0 minutes ago
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 3 hours, 41 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 3 hours, 49 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 52 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 15 hours, 55 minutes ago