Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Rangers STL @ TEX

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

33-25  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Jun 1 • 1:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

28-31  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob deGrom
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob deGrom

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Leahy None-None 2.32 -- 0.2 --
Jacob deGrom None-None 2.34 -- 6.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
2.32 Ldr ERA 2.34
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
RANGERS
0%
CARDINALS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Texas)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

46.2%

Rangers Cover

53.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

STL By 1-2 runs

17.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

12.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.32
ST. LOUIS
4.7
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 3, 2026 TEX @ STL 3 - 5
Jun 2, 2026 TEX @ STL 7 - 4
Jun 1, 2026 TEX @ STL 2 - 1
Jun 1, 2025 STL @ TEX 1 - 8
May 31, 2025 STL @ TEX 2 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.691
OPS
▲ .713
167
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +58.1% more
Texas: 3.5 vs St. Louis: 2.2
Home Runs (L5) +15.0% more
Texas: 0.6 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +9.6% more
Texas: 183.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
OPS (Season) +2.2%
Texas: 71.3% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.3 1
TEX Score 4.7 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.6 / 7.2 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 9.4 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.1 / 10.9 16.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.2 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
STL
TEX
STL
ML
53% 86-76
53% 85-74
57% 91-70
52% 84-77
ATS
57% 92-70
56% 89-70
61% 98-63
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 78-70-14
46% 68-81-10
55% 81-66-14
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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