MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
31-28 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
36-22 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.33 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 3.18 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.33 Ldr
ERA
3.18
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
BREWERS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.2%
MIL By 3-4 runs
19.1%
PHI By 1-2 runs
12.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
6.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.98
MILWAUKEE
Philadelphia
3.55
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIL @ PHI
5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026
PHI @ MIL
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
PHI @ MIL
9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.743
▲
OPS
.724
154
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Hits (L5)
+43.0% more
Milwaukee: 13.8
vs
Philadelphia: 7.9
Total Bases (L5)
+34.5% more
Milwaukee: 22.2
vs
Philadelphia: 14.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.9% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
6.0
5
PHI Score
3.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 13.8
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 8.2
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 22.2
7.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIL
PHI
MIL
ML
59%
97-67
62%
101-61
49%
80-84
52%
84-78
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
94-68
51%
83-81
48%
78-84
TTL
57%
88-67-9
40%
62-92-8
51%
78-76-9
50%
77-77-8
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