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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

29-30  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jun 1 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

36-22  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Stephenson
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Stephenson

#37 | Catcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Stephenson None-None -- -- -- --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.21 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.21
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
REDS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

46.3%

Cubs Cover

53.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

12.5%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.0%

CHC By 3-4 runs

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.21
CINCINNATI
5.58
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699 ▲
OPS
.374
213 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +30.2% more
Chicago: 9.4 vs Cincinnati: 7.2
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
Chicago: 0.2 vs Cincinnati: 0.0
Hits (L5) +9.6% more
Chicago: 7.8 vs Cincinnati: 7.1
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.2 3
CHC Score 5.6 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.8 / 7.1 10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 7.2 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 11.5 15.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.4 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58% 93-68
55% 88-71
51% 82-79
49% 79-81
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 80-80
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 81-73-5
46% 72-83-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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