PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
22-37 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
32-24 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 3.04 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
3.04
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
PADRES
0%
PIRATES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.2%
PIT By 3-4 runs
13.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
18.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.99
PITTSBURGH
San Diego
4.14
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PIT @ SD
0 - 3
Aug 25, 2026
PIT @ SD
1 - 0
Aug 24, 2026
PIT @ SD
3 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
SD @ PIT
8 - 2
Apr 7, 2026
SD @ PIT
1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.734
OPS
▲
.925
186
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+67.8% more
San Diego: 9.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.8% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
OPS (Season)
+19.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+15.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
4
SD Score
4.1
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.2 / 10.1
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 5.7
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.2 / 15.4
14.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.5
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PIT
SD
PIT
ML
51%
85-83
52%
82-77
51%
85-82
52%
85-78
ATS
54%
91-77
54%
86-73
55%
92-75
50%
81-82
TTL
51%
82-80-6
47%
72-81-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
79-78-6
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