BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
28-31 | Road
0
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
26-30 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ceddanne Rafaela
#3 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 2.52 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.52
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
BRAVES
100%
RED SOX
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.8%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.98
BOSTON
Atlanta
3.54
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 28, 2026
ATL @ BOS
10 - 2
May 27, 2026
ATL @ BOS
0 - 8
May 26, 2026
ATL @ BOS
7 - 6
May 17, 2026
BOS @ ATL
1 - 8
May 16, 2026
BOS @ ATL
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.409
OPS
▲
.757
2
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+88.4% more
Boston: 1.2
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+49.5% more
Boston: 1.1
vs
Atlanta: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+20.3% more
Boston: 14.1
vs
Atlanta: 11.2
Walks (L5)
+15.7% more
Boston: 3.8
vs
Atlanta: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
0
ATL Score
3.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 9.4
11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 7.8
14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 14.1
19.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.8
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BOS
ATL
BOS
ML
46%
77-90
50%
80-80
54%
90-78
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-67
52%
87-81
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
83-73-11
46%
72-83-5
49%
76-80-11
47%
74-83-6
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