TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
29-28 | Road
16
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
31-26 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Aranda
#8 | First Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Okert
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Steven Okert | None-None | 2.05 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.05
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
0%
ASTROS
100%
RAYS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.2%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.74
TAMPA BAY
Houston
4.36
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
HOU @ TB
4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026
HOU @ TB
2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026
HOU @ TB
1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
TB @ HOU
0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
TB @ HOU
8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.728
▲
OPS
.582
169
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+36.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.7
vs
Houston: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+33.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+14.6%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.7
16
HOU Score
4.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.0
10.0 / 18.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
2.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
11.1 / 7.5
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 13.3
16.0 / 40.0
Walks
2.8 / 1.0
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TB
HOU
TB
ML
50%
81-82
58%
95-68
47%
77-87
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
97-66
55%
90-74
55%
90-73
TTL
45%
70-84-9
47%
73-81-9
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-75-10
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