Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Guardians LAA @ CLE

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

26-30  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, May 31 • 4:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

30-26  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Travis d'Arnaud
STARTING PITCHER

Travis d'Arnaud

#25 | Catcher
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Travis d'Arnaud None-None -- -- -- --
Cade Smith None-None 2.73 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.73
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
0%
📊
GUARDIANS
100%
ANGELS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

68.5%

Guardians Cover

31.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

18.3%

CLE By 1-2 runs

13.8%

CLE By 3-4 runs

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.32
LOS ANGELES
3.39
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 CLE @ LAA 4 - 3
Aug 25, 2026 CLE @ LAA 8 - 6
Aug 24, 2026 CLE @ LAA 4 - 2
May 13, 2026 LAA @ CLE 2 - 4
May 12, 2026 LAA @ CLE 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .380
.679
OPS
▲ .696
154
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +31.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs Cleveland: 0.5
Walks (L5) +24.7% more
Los Angeles: 5.4 vs Cleveland: 4.1
Total Bases (L5) +9.9% more
Los Angeles: 12.5 vs Cleveland: 11.3
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 5.3 5
CLE Score 3.4 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.6 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.7 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 12.5 24.0 / 18.0
Walks 4.1 / 5.4 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
LAA
CLE
LAA
ML
54% 87-74
59% 96-66
49% 80-82
55% 89-73
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 97-65
59% 95-67
51% 82-80
TTL
55% 88-71-2
53% 83-74-5
43% 69-90-2
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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