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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

31-25  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, May 31 • 7:15 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

30-26  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
Eduard Bazardo
STARTING PITCHER

Eduard Bazardo

#83 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bailey Ober None-None 3.48 -- 4.0 4
Eduard Bazardo None-None 3.90 -- 1.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.48 Ldr ERA 3.90
-- WHIP --
4.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
0%
📊
MARINERS
100%
TWINS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

74.7%

Mariners Cover

25.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

19.3%

SEA By 1-2 runs

11.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

6.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.36
MINNESOTA
2.7
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.7
D
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 MIN @ SEA 6 - 7
Aug 1, 2026 MIN @ SEA 3 - 4
Jul 31, 2026 MIN @ SEA 5 - 3
Apr 29, 2026 SEA @ MIN 5 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 SEA @ MIN 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.720 ▲
OPS
.693
187 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +17.0% more
Minnesota: 1.8 vs Seattle: 1.5
Strikeouts (L5) +15.0% more
Minnesota: 8.0 vs Seattle: 6.8
Total Bases (L5) +14.6% more
Minnesota: 15.3 vs Seattle: 13.0
Runs per Game (Season) +10.1% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.4 4
SEA Score 2.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 8.8 10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 8.0 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 15.3 18.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.3 / 1.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
MIN
SEA
MIN
ML
50% 81-81
52% 84-78
52% 85-77
50% 80-81
ATS
60% 98-64
59% 95-67
59% 95-67
59% 95-66
TTL
56% 85-67-10
51% 78-75-9
53% 81-71-10
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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