WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
27-30 | Road
11
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
27-30 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daylen Lile
#4 | Left Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylen Lile | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 5.05 | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
5.05
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
NATIONALS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.9%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
11.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5.31
WASHINGTON
Arizona
4.47
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ARI @ WSH
7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
WSH @ ARI
1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
WSH @ ARI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744
▲
OPS
.720
210
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+54.4% more
Washington: 1.7
vs
Arizona: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+21.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Total Bases (L5)
+19.9% more
Washington: 17.9
vs
Arizona: 14.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.1% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.3
11
ARI Score
4.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 9.9
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 6.9
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 17.9
19.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.6
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
WSH
ARI
WSH
ML
54%
87-74
57%
92-69
54%
86-74
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
56%
89-71
57%
91-70
TTL
52%
80-73-8
50%
77-78-6
49%
73-77-9
42%
65-90-6
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