PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
21-36 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
31-23 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 3.73 | -- | 6.0 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 2.49 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.73
ERA
Ldr 2.49
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
PADRES
0%
PIRATES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
PIT By 1-2 runs
12.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.85
PITTSBURGH
San Diego
5.15
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PIT @ SD
0 - 3
Aug 25, 2026
PIT @ SD
1 - 0
Aug 24, 2026
PIT @ SD
3 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
SD @ PIT
8 - 2
Apr 7, 2026
SD @ PIT
1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.734
OPS
▲
.925
186
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+39.0% more
San Diego: 1.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.8% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
OPS (Season)
+19.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+15.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.9
2
SD Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 10.2
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.4
14.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 16.3
5.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.4
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PIT
SD
PIT
ML
51%
85-83
52%
82-77
51%
85-82
52%
85-78
ATS
54%
91-77
54%
86-73
55%
92-75
50%
81-82
TTL
51%
82-80-6
47%
72-81-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
79-78-6
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