MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
30-25 | Road
12
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
30-25 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | None-None | 6.43 | -- | 7.0 | 7 |
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 1.09 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.43
ERA
Ldr 1.09
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
0%
MARINERS
100%
TWINS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
19.0%
SEA By 1-2 runs
12.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
6.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.97
MINNESOTA
Seattle
2.59
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
MIN @ SEA
6 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
MIN @ SEA
3 - 4
Jul 31, 2026
MIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Apr 29, 2026
SEA @ MIN
5 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SEA @ MIN
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.720
▲
OPS
.693
187
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.2% more
Minnesota: 8.0
vs
Seattle: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.1% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Seattle: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.7%
Minnesota: 72.0%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+2.7% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Seattle: 182.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
5.0
12
SEA Score
2.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 6.2
9.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.6
3.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 8.0
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 8.9
18.0 / 28.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.2
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
MIN
SEA
MIN
ML
50%
81-81
52%
84-78
52%
85-77
50%
80-81
ATS
60%
98-64
59%
95-67
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-9
53%
81-71-10
53%
80-72-9
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