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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

35-20  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, May 30 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

34-22  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Brent Headrick
STARTING PITCHER

Brent Headrick

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brent Headrick None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 1
Alex Vesia None-None 3.24 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.24
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
0%
📊
DODGERS
100%
YANKEES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

61.8%

Dodgers Cover

38.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.8%

LAD By 1-2 runs

15.8%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.93
NEW YORK
5.73
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 LAD @ NYY 1 - 2
Jul 17, 2026 LAD @ NYY 2 - 1
Jun 1, 2025 NYY @ LAD 7 - 3
May 31, 2025 NYY @ LAD 2 - 18
May 30, 2025 NYY @ LAD 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Los Angeles LAD
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
1.041 ▲
OPS
.762
2
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +45.1% more
New York: 9.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
OPS (Season) +27.9%
New York: 1.0% vs Los Angeles: 76.2%
Slugging Pct (Season) +17.0%
New York: 59.4% vs Los Angeles: 42.4%
Batting Avg (Season) +11.8%
New York: 37.5% vs Los Angeles: 25.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 6.9 5
LAD Score 5.7 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.6 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.7 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 10.1 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 12.3 21.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.1 / 1.7 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
NYY
LAD
NYY
ML
56% 92-73
47% 76-85
48% 79-87
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 98-67
59% 95-66
43% 72-94
53% 86-76
TTL
48% 77-82-6
53% 81-73-7
44% 70-90-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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