TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
28-27 | Road
13
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
30-25 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chandler Simpson
#14 | Left Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Simpson | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Bryan King | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.38
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
ASTROS
0%
RAYS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.4%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.0%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.2%
HOU By 3-4 runs
15.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.77
TAMPA BAY
Houston
5.31
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
HOU @ TB
4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026
HOU @ TB
2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026
HOU @ TB
1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
TB @ HOU
0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
TB @ HOU
8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.728
▲
OPS
.582
169
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+72.5% more
Houston: 12.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.4
Walks (L5)
+66.0% more
Houston: 2.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.5
Hits (L5)
+19.3% more
Houston: 10.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 8.6
Total Bases (L5)
+16.5% more
Houston: 16.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.8
13
HOU Score
5.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.3 / 8.6
8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.5
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
12.8 / 7.4
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 14.5
16.0 / 22.0
Walks
2.5 / 1.5
6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TB
HOU
TB
ML
50%
81-82
58%
95-68
47%
77-87
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
97-66
55%
90-74
55%
90-73
TTL
45%
70-84-9
47%
73-81-9
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-75-10
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