BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
27-30 | Road
5
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
28-28 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Abner Uribe
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 3.47 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Abner Uribe | None-None | 1.65 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.47
ERA
Ldr 1.65
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
BREWERS
0%
RED SOX
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
BOS By 1-2 runs
14.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
8.7%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
2.36
BOSTON
Milwaukee
4.04
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
MIL @ BOS
0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026
MIL @ BOS
2 - 3
Apr 6, 2026
MIL @ BOS
8 - 6
May 28, 2025
BOS @ MIL
5 - 6
May 27, 2025
BOS @ MIL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.409
OPS
▲
.743
2
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7600.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+414.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+33.4%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Home Runs (L5)
+24.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.9
vs
Boston: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
2.4
5
MIL Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 3.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.3
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 8.9
13.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 12.1
13.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.9
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
BOS
MIL
BOS
ML
62%
101-61
50%
80-80
52%
84-78
47%
76-87
ATS
58%
94-68
58%
93-67
48%
78-84
48%
79-84
TTL
40%
62-92-8
46%
72-83-5
50%
77-77-8
47%
74-83-6
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