Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Guardians LAD @ CLE

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

34-21  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, May 28 • 1:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

29-25  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 3.38 -- 0.2 2
Matt Festa None-None 3.65 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 Ldr ERA 3.65
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
0%
📊
GUARDIANS
100%
DODGERS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

77.9%

Guardians Cover

22.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

10.4%

CLE By 3-4 runs

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6.42
LOS ANGELES
3.35
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
3
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.1
D
Sim Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 CLE @ LAD 4 - 1
Mar 31, 2026 CLE @ LAD 1 - 4
Mar 30, 2026 CLE @ LAD 4 - 2
May 28, 2025 LAD @ CLE 4 - 7
May 27, 2025 LAD @ CLE 9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.762 ▲
OPS
.696
204 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +68.4% more
Los Angeles: 1.8 vs Cleveland: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +31.4% more
Los Angeles: 15.1 vs Cleveland: 10.3
Hits (L5) +27.3% more
Los Angeles: 9.1 vs Cleveland: 6.6
Home Runs (Season) +20.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.4 4
CLE Score 3.4 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 9.1 15.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 9.8 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 15.1 21.0 / 10.0
Walks 5.1 / 2.6 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
LAD
CLE
LAD
ML
54% 87-74
56% 92-73
49% 80-82
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 98-67
59% 95-67
43% 72-94
TTL
55% 88-71-2
48% 77-82-6
43% 69-90-2
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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