PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
20-36 | Road
10
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
27-28 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | None-None | 2.15 | -- | 6.2 | 7 |
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 6.43 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.15 Ldr
ERA
6.43
--
WHIP
--
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PIRATES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.5%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.2%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Arizona
3.98
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
ARI @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 28, 2026
ARI @ PIT
8 - 7
Jul 27, 2026
ARI @ PIT
2 - 3
May 7, 2026
PIT @ ARI
4 - 2
May 6, 2026
PIT @ ARI
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+20.8% more
Arizona: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+10.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.6% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+1.4%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
10
ARI Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 9.8
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.1
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 15.5
10.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.0
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PIT
ARI
PIT
ML
54%
87-74
52%
82-77
54%
86-74
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
80-73-8
47%
72-81-6
49%
73-77-9
50%
79-78-6
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