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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

28-28  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, May 28 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

29-27  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
@
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Greene None-None 2.63 -- 5.0 3
Noah Cameron None-None 1.05 -- 6.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.63 ERA Ldr 1.05
-- WHIP --
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.1
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
REDS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Kansas City)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

49.0%

Royals Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

13.3%

KC By 1-2 runs

18.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.28
CINCINNATI
3.38
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
3
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 3, 2026 KC @ CIN 5 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 KC @ CIN 3 - 4
Jun 1, 2026 KC @ CIN 9 - 2
May 28, 2025 CIN @ KC 2 - 3
May 27, 2025 CIN @ KC 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.699
OPS
▲ .718
213 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +80.6% more
Kansas City: 3.9 vs Cincinnati: 2.2
Errors (L5) +62.0% more
Kansas City: 0.7 vs Cincinnati: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +53.2% more
Kansas City: 9.2 vs Cincinnati: 6.0
Runs per Game (Season) +3.6% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.3 2
KC Score 3.4 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 10.7 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 6.0 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 17.5 10.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.2 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CIN
KC
CIN
ML
55% 89-72
55% 88-71
56% 90-70
49% 79-81
ATS
57% 91-70
54% 86-73
58% 93-67
50% 80-80
TTL
58% 90-64-7
53% 81-73-5
54% 83-70-7
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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