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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

24-30  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, May 28 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

30-23  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Daylen Lile
STARTING PITCHER

Daylen Lile

#4 | Left Field
@
George Kirby
STARTING PITCHER

George Kirby

#68 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daylen Lile None-None -- -- -- --
George Kirby None-None 11.42 -- 5.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 11.42
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
MARINERS
0%
NATIONALS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Seattle)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

48.6%

Mariners Cover

51.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.2%

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.88
WASHINGTON
4.02
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Mariners (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 SEA @ WSH 1 - 10
Jun 13, 2026 SEA @ WSH 3 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 SEA @ WSH 10 - 2
May 29, 2025 WSH @ SEA 9 - 3
May 28, 2025 WSH @ SEA 9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.744 ▲
OPS
.693
210 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +85.0% more
Seattle: 1.6 vs Washington: 0.7
Hits (L5) +58.5% more
Seattle: 9.7 vs Washington: 6.1
Total Bases (L5) +52.2% more
Seattle: 16.0 vs Washington: 10.5
Errors (L5) +51.0% more
Washington: 0.9 vs Seattle: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.9 9
SEA Score 4.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.7 / 6.1 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 6.0 / 7.6 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 16.0 / 10.5 5.0 / 28.0
Walks 1.7 / 3.1 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
WSH
SEA
WSH
ML
50% 81-81
57% 92-69
52% 85-77
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 98-64
58% 93-68
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
TTL
56% 85-67-10
50% 77-78-6
53% 81-71-10
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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