ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
25-27 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
34-19 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 2.74 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 3.54 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.74 Ldr
ERA
3.54
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
PHILLIES
0%
BRAVES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.9%
PHI By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.83
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
5.16
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.757
▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+78.3% more
Philadelphia: 3.9
vs
Atlanta: 2.2
Home Runs (L5)
+44.2% more
Philadelphia: 1.5
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.7% more
Philadelphia: 10.7
vs
Atlanta: 8.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.8
0
PHI Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.1
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 8.6
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 14.0
6.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.2
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
97-67
46%
77-90
49%
80-84
54%
90-78
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
96-71
51%
83-81
52%
87-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-76-9
49%
76-80-11
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