MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
29-24 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
27-26 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | None-None | 4.38 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
| Griffin Jax | None-None | 4.38 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.38
ERA
4.38
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
RAYS
0%
TWINS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
MIN By 1-2 runs
14.2%
MIN By 3-4 runs
8.4%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.09
MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay
5.87
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 26, 2026
MIN @ TB
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
MIN @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2026
MIN @ TB
2 - 6
Apr 5, 2026
TB @ MIN
4 - 1
Apr 4, 2026
TB @ MIN
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
▲
.728
187
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+91.8% more
Tampa Bay: 18.2
vs
Minnesota: 9.5
Home Runs (L5)
+84.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.8
vs
Minnesota: 0.9
Hits (L5)
+78.9% more
Tampa Bay: 10.5
vs
Minnesota: 5.8
Walks (L5)
+18.4% more
Tampa Bay: 2.1
vs
Minnesota: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.1
4
TB Score
5.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.5 / 5.8
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 8.2
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
18.2 / 9.5
8.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.1 / 1.8
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIN
TB
MIN
ML
58%
95-68
52%
84-78
58%
95-68
50%
80-81
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
95-67
55%
90-73
59%
95-66
TTL
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-9
51%
78-75-10
53%
80-72-9
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