Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Mets CHW @ NYM

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

17-37  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, May 27 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

33-21  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Luisangel Acuna
STARTING PITCHER

Luisangel Acuna

#0 | Shortstop
@
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luisangel Acuna None-None -- -- -- --
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
100%
📊
METS
0%
WHITE SOX --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

40.4%

Mets Cover

59.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.4%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.7%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
2.4
CHICAGO
3.37
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 NYM @ CHW 1 - 2
Aug 22, 2026 NYM @ CHW 10 - 5
Aug 21, 2026 NYM @ CHW 4 - 6
May 28, 2025 CHW @ NYM 9 - 4
May 27, 2025 CHW @ NYM 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
New York NYM
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.826 ▲
OPS
.705
1
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20300.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5) +26.8% more
New York: 4.9 vs Chicago: 3.9
Strikeouts (L5) +8.8% more
New York: 8.1 vs Chicago: 7.4
Home Runs (L5) +60.8% more
Chicago: 1.0 vs New York: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 2.4 4
NYM Score 3.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.5 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.4 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 13.1 20.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.9 / 3.9 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-80-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6% Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CHW
NYM
CHW
ML
50% 79-80
48% 81-87
48% 76-83
56% 94-74
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 99-69
49% 78-81
55% 93-75
TTL
55% 80-66-13
58% 97-69-2
51% 74-72-13
51% 85-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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