BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
27-29 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
27-28 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Anderson
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 2.14 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Grant Anderson | None-None | 2.86 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.14 Ldr
ERA
2.86
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
BREWERS
100%
RED SOX
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.9%
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.36
BOSTON
Milwaukee
3.26
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
MIL @ BOS
0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026
MIL @ BOS
2 - 3
Apr 6, 2026
MIL @ BOS
8 - 6
May 28, 2025
BOS @ MIL
5 - 6
May 27, 2025
BOS @ MIL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.409
OPS
▲
.743
2
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Boston: 0.7
vs
Milwaukee: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+14.0% more
Boston: 0.9
vs
Milwaukee: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+10.4% more
Boston: 13.7
vs
Milwaukee: 12.3
Hits (L5)
+8.3% more
Boston: 8.9
vs
Milwaukee: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.4
1
MIL Score
3.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.9
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 9.4
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 13.7
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.8
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
BOS
MIL
BOS
ML
62%
101-61
50%
80-80
52%
84-78
47%
76-87
ATS
58%
94-68
58%
93-67
48%
78-84
48%
79-84
TTL
40%
62-92-8
46%
72-83-5
50%
77-77-8
47%
74-83-6
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