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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

24-29  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, May 27 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

29-23  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Daylen Lile
STARTING PITCHER

Daylen Lile

#4 | Left Field
@
Eduard Bazardo
STARTING PITCHER

Eduard Bazardo

#83 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daylen Lile None-None -- -- -- --
Eduard Bazardo None-None 4.21 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.21
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
0%
📊
MARINERS
100%
NATIONALS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

65.9%

Mariners Cover

34.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

17.8%

SEA By 1-2 runs

14.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.44
WASHINGTON
2.8
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 SEA @ WSH 1 - 10
Jun 13, 2026 SEA @ WSH 3 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 SEA @ WSH 10 - 2
May 29, 2025 WSH @ SEA 9 - 3
May 28, 2025 WSH @ SEA 9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.744 ▲
OPS
.693
210 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +25.1% more
Washington: 2.7 vs Seattle: 2.0
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
Washington: 0.9 vs Seattle: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +19.1% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Seattle: 4.1
Home Runs (Season) +13.3% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Seattle: 182.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.4 1
SEA Score 2.8 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.2 12.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.6 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 7.3 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 11.7 23.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.7 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
WSH
SEA
WSH
ML
50% 81-81
57% 92-69
52% 85-77
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 98-64
58% 93-68
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
TTL
56% 85-67-10
50% 77-78-6
53% 81-71-10
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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