PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
19-36 | Road
9
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
27-27 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Henry Davis
#32 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Davis | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 12.60 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
12.60
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PIRATES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.3%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.14
PITTSBURGH
Arizona
3.92
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
ARI @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 28, 2026
ARI @ PIT
8 - 7
Jul 27, 2026
ARI @ PIT
2 - 3
May 7, 2026
PIT @ ARI
4 - 2
May 6, 2026
PIT @ ARI
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+83.0% more
Arizona: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+25.6% more
Arizona: 15.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.8% more
Arizona: 6.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.7
Hits (L5)
+12.4% more
Arizona: 9.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.1
9
ARI Score
3.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 8.7
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 5.7
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 12.7
14.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PIT
ARI
PIT
ML
54%
87-74
52%
82-77
54%
86-74
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
80-73-8
47%
72-81-6
49%
73-77-9
50%
79-78-6
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