Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Royals CIN @ KC

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

26-28  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, May 26 • 4:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

29-25  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emilio Pagan None-None 3.96 -- 1.0 1
Steven Cruz None-None 1.53 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.96 ERA Ldr 1.53
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
REDS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.82
CINCINNATI
3.82
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 3, 2026 KC @ CIN 5 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 KC @ CIN 3 - 4
Jun 1, 2026 KC @ CIN 9 - 2
May 28, 2025 CIN @ KC 2 - 3
May 27, 2025 CIN @ KC 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.699
OPS
▲ .718
213 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +13.0% more
Kansas City: 0.3 vs Cincinnati: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +8.8% more
Kansas City: 8.4 vs Cincinnati: 7.7
Runs per Game (Season) +3.6% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.9%
Kansas City: 71.8% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 2.8 7
KC Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 9.7 7.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 7.7 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 13.9 11.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.6 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CIN
KC
CIN
ML
55% 89-72
55% 88-71
56% 90-70
49% 79-81
ATS
57% 91-70
54% 86-73
58% 93-67
50% 80-80
TTL
58% 90-64-7
53% 81-73-5
54% 83-70-7
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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