PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
19-35 | Road
0
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
26-27 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
6.75
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PIRATES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.9%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.42
PITTSBURGH
Arizona
3.98
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
ARI @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 28, 2026
ARI @ PIT
8 - 7
Jul 27, 2026
ARI @ PIT
2 - 3
May 7, 2026
PIT @ ARI
4 - 2
May 6, 2026
PIT @ ARI
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+23.0% more
Arizona: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+50.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.5
vs
Arizona: 0.0
Walks (L5)
+32.0% more
Pittsburgh: 3.3
vs
Arizona: 2.3
Home Runs (Season)
+10.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.4
0
ARI Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 10.0
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.0
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 15.0
17.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.3
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PIT
ARI
PIT
ML
54%
87-74
52%
82-77
54%
86-74
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
80-73-8
47%
72-81-6
49%
73-77-9
50%
79-78-6
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