CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
31-21 | Road
11
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
26-27 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| Nick Lodolo | None-None | 3.39 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
3.39
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
REDS
100%
CUBS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.9%
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.59
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
4.36
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.374
OPS
▲
.699
0
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+71.8% more
Chicago: 2.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+51.0% more
Chicago: 0.8
vs
Cincinnati: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+34.8% more
Chicago: 21.3
vs
Cincinnati: 13.9
Walks (L5)
+24.9% more
Chicago: 3.9
vs
Cincinnati: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.6
11
CIN Score
4.4
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 11.8
11.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.1
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 7.2
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 21.3
14.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.9
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55%
88-71
58%
93-68
49%
79-81
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
80-80
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
81-74-6
54%
83-72-5
46%
72-83-6
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