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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

28-25  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, May 25 • 2:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

29-22  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Michael Massey
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Massey

#19 | Second Base
@
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Massey None-None -- -- -- --
Bailey Ober None-None 3.41 -- 6.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.41
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
TWINS
0%
ROYALS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Minnesota)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

39.6%

Twins Cover

60.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.2%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.4%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.61
KANSAS CITY
4.67
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 MIN @ KC 4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026 MIN @ KC 1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026 MIN @ KC 2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 KC @ MIN 3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 KC @ MIN 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +109.0% more
Minnesota: 1.4 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +64.1% more
Minnesota: 10.9 vs Kansas City: 6.6
Home Runs (Season) +10.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season) +7.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.6 2
MIN Score 4.7 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 10.2 3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 6.6 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 12.9 4.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
KC
MIN
KC
ML
52% 84-78
55% 89-72
50% 80-81
56% 90-70
ATS
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
59% 95-66
58% 93-67
TTL
51% 78-75-9
58% 90-64-7
53% 80-72-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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