ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
26-26 | Road
3
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
29-23 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pedro Pages
#43 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 4.05 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Pedro Pages | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.05
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.4%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.1%
STL By 3-4 runs
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.61
ARIZONA
St. Louis
4.96
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
ARI @ STL
10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026
STL @ ARI
7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
STL @ ARI
3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026
STL @ ARI
5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026
ARI @ STL
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720
▲
OPS
.691
166
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+81.5% more
Arizona: 1.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+40.8% more
Arizona: 16.6
vs
St. Louis: 9.8
Walks (L5)
+29.9% more
Arizona: 2.9
vs
St. Louis: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+23.6% more
Arizona: 9.5
vs
St. Louis: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.6
3
STL Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 9.5
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 7.4
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.8 / 16.6
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.9
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ARI
STL
ARI
ML
53%
85-74
54%
87-74
52%
84-77
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
89-70
57%
91-70
53%
85-76
56%
89-71
TTL
46%
68-81-10
52%
80-73-8
50%
76-75-10
49%
73-77-9
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