Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Chiefs LV @ KC

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-9  |  Road

17
FINAL
Fri, Nov 29 • 3:00 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

10-1  |  Home

19
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Jaden Hicks
KEY GAME

Jaden Hicks

#21 | Safety
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Jaden Hicks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
2%
📊
CHIEFS
98%
RAIDERS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Kansas City)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

41.6%

Chiefs Cover

58.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

LV By 1-6 points

15.3%

LV By 7-13 points

13.0%

KC By 1-6 points

17.0%

KC By 7-13 points

17.4%

AI Model Projected Score
19.96
LAS VEGAS
22.93
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
17
LAS VEGAS
31
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs Win
98% Win Prob
A
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.9
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 KC @ LV 30 - 27
Jan 4, 2026 KC @ LV 12 - 14
Oct 19, 2025 LV @ KC 0 - 31
Nov 29, 2024 LV @ KC 17 - 19
Oct 27, 2024 KC @ LV 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +72.5% more
Kansas City: 117.3 vs Las Vegas: 68.0
First Downs (L5) +19.8% more
Kansas City: 23.2 vs Las Vegas: 19.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Las Vegas: 0.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.2% more
Kansas City: 5.2 vs Las Vegas: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 20.0 17
KC Score 22.9 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 19.4 18.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 222.7 / 242.4 266.0 / 318.0
Rushing Yards 117.3 / 68.0 63.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 340.0 / 310.4 329.0 / 434.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.7 4.9 / 6.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LV
KC
LV
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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