Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Broncos CLE @ DEN

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-8  |  Road

32
FINAL
Mon, Dec 2 • 8:15 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

7-5  |  Home

41
Key Game
Damarri Mathis
KEY GAME

Damarri Mathis

#37 | Cornerback
@
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
Player
Damarri Mathis None-None
Wil Lutz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
21%
📊
BRONCOS
79%
BROWNS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.3
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.3 points (Denver)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

25.3%

Broncos Cover

74.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -9.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

CLE By 1-6 points

11.2%

CLE By 7-13 points

7.8%

DEN By 1-6 points

15.6%

DEN By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
15.76
CLEVELAND
25.09
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
23
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Broncos Win
79% Win Prob
B
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.3
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2024 CLE @ DEN 32 - 41
Nov 26, 2023 CLE @ DEN 12 - 29
Oct 21, 2021 DEN @ CLE 14 - 17
Nov 3, 2019 CLE @ DEN 19 - 24
Dec 15, 2018 CLE @ DEN 17 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Denver: 0.5 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.1% more
Denver: 94.1 vs Cleveland: 80.4
Turnovers (L5) +78.2% more
Cleveland: 1.8 vs Denver: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 15.8 32
DEN Score 25.1 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 19.0 19.0 / 28.0
Net Passing Yards 241.8 / 256.6 294.0 / 475.0
Rushing Yards 94.1 / 80.4 106.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 335.9 / 337.0 400.0 / 552.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.8 2.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.2 6.6 / 6.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CLE
DEN
CLE
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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