NEW ORLEANS
SAINTSNO
4-8 | Road
14
NEW YORK
GIANTSNYG
2-10 | Home
11
Key Game
KEY GAME
John Ridgeway III
#95 | Defensive Tackle@
KEY GAME
Kayvon Thibodeaux
#5 | Linebacker| Player | |
|---|---|
| John Ridgeway III | None-None |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
71%
GIANTS
29%
SAINTS
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NO -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
NO By 1-6 points
16.9%
NO By 7-13 points
18.2%
NYG By 1-6 points
14.5%
NYG By 7-13 points
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
21.04
NEW ORLEANS
New York
16.65
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
New Orleans
20
NEW ORLEANS
New York
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Saints
Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Saints (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.4
B
Sim
Giants (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 37.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 5, 2025
NYG @ NO
14 - 26
Dec 8, 2024
NO @ NYG
14 - 11
Dec 17, 2023
NYG @ NO
6 - 24
Oct 3, 2021
NYG @ NO
27 - 21
Sep 30, 2018
NO @ NYG
33 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+28.4% more
New Orleans: 223.5
vs
New York: 160.0
Total Yards (L5)
+24.8% more
New Orleans: 372.8
vs
New York: 280.3
Yards Per Play (L5)
+24.5% more
New Orleans: 6.0
vs
New York: 4.5
Rushing Yards (L5)
+19.4% more
New Orleans: 149.3
vs
New York: 120.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
21.0
14
NYG Score
16.7
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.9 / 18.4
16.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards
160.0 / 223.5
213.0 / 200.0
Rushing Yards
120.2 / 149.3
112.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.26 / 0.33
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
280.3 / 372.8
325.0 / 292.0
Turnovers
1.7 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
4.5 / 6.0
4.4 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.8
ATS +/-: -3.1
NYG
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.8
ATS +/-: -3.1
NYG
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +11.5
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYG
NO
NYG
NO
ML
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
ATS
100%
4-0
0%
0-4
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
TTL
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
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