Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bengals @ Cowboys CIN @ DAL

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

4-8  |  Road

27
FINAL
Mon, Dec 9 • 8:15 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

5-7  |  Home

20
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
41%
📊
COWBOYS
59%
BENGALS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Dallas)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

49.1%

Cowboys Cover

50.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

CIN By 1-6 points

16.4%

CIN By 7-13 points

15.1%

DAL By 1-6 points

16.5%

DAL By 7-13 points

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.37
CINCINNATI
21.67
DALLAS
Simulated Score
23
CINCINNATI
27
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2024 CIN @ DAL 27 - 20
Sep 18, 2022 CIN @ DAL 17 - 20
Dec 13, 2020 DAL @ CIN 30 - 7
Oct 9, 2016 CIN @ DAL 14 - 28
Dec 9, 2012 DAL @ CIN 20 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.5% more
Cincinnati: 300.1 vs Dallas: 220.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.6% more
Cincinnati: 6.0 vs Dallas: 4.8
Total Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Cincinnati: 391.6 vs Dallas: 318.8
First Downs (L5) +15.8% more
Cincinnati: 23.7 vs Dallas: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 21.4 27
DAL Score 21.7 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 23.7 17.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 220.6 / 300.1 166.0 / 359.0
Rushing Yards 98.2 / 91.4 156.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 318.8 / 391.6 322.0 / 433.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 6.0 5.5 / 6.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CIN
DAL
CIN
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
67% 2-1-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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