OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
30-5 | Road
122
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
31-4 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
THUNDER
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
26.0%
OKC By 8-14 points
16.6%
CLE By 1-7 points
24.5%
CLE By 8-14 points
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
119.91
OKLAHOMA CITY
Cleveland
119.13
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
Cleveland
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
CLE @ OKC
113 - 121
Jan 19, 2026
OKC @ CLE
136 - 104
Jan 16, 2025
CLE @ OKC
114 - 134
Jan 8, 2025
OKC @ CLE
122 - 129
Nov 8, 2023
CLE @ OKC
120 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+40.3% more
Oklahoma City: 10.8
vs
Cleveland: 6.4
Turnovers (L5)
+13.3% more
Oklahoma City: 13.1
vs
Cleveland: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.9%
Oklahoma City: 82.9%
vs
Cleveland: 76.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Oklahoma City: 40.4%
vs
Cleveland: 38.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
119.9
122
CLE Score
119.1
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 40.4
41.7 / 35.5
Assists
32.0 / 25.6
36.0 / 35.0
Blocks
5.8 / 5.3
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 47.8
52.2 / 53.3
Free Throw %
76.0 / 82.9
74.1 / 88.2
Rebounding
44.7 / 42.6
40.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.4 / 10.8
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 13.1
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
OKC
CLE
OKC
ML
60%
69-46
70%
80-34
56%
55-44
48%
46-49
ATS
67%
75-37-3
73%
83-30-1
56%
55-44
48%
46-49
TTL
59%
68-47
67%
76-38
100%
99-0
100%
95-0
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