WASHINGTON
COMMANDERSWSH
12-5 | Road
45
DETROIT
LIONSDET
15-2 | Home
31
Key Game
KEY GAME
Craig Reynolds
#32 | Running Back@
KEY GAME
Jack Fox
#3 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Craig Reynolds | None-None |
| Jack Fox | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
24%
LIONS
76%
COMMANDERS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
WSH By 1-6 points
13.2%
WSH By 7-13 points
10.0%
DET By 1-6 points
16.6%
DET By 7-13 points
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
29.03
WASHINGTON
Detroit
35.56
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Washington
24
WASHINGTON
Detroit
27
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Lions
Loss
76% Win Prob
B
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.5
B
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 64.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 9, 2025
DET @ WSH
44 - 22
Jan 18, 2025
WSH @ DET
45 - 31
Sep 18, 2022
WSH @ DET
27 - 36
Nov 15, 2020
WSH @ DET
27 - 30
Nov 24, 2019
DET @ WSH
16 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+29.2% more
Detroit: 282.8
vs
Washington: 219.0
Total Yards (L5)
+24.5% more
Detroit: 431.1
vs
Washington: 346.3
Yards Per Play (L5)
+21.6% more
Detroit: 6.3
vs
Washington: 5.2
Rushing Yards (L5)
+16.5% more
Detroit: 148.3
vs
Washington: 127.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
29.0
45
DET Score
35.6
31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
25.2 / 22.4
30.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards
282.8 / 219.0
320.0 / 299.0
Rushing Yards
148.3 / 127.3
201.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.5
0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards
431.1 / 346.3
521.0 / 481.0
Turnovers
1.0 / 1.0
5.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
6.3 / 5.2
7.7 / 6.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -8.5
ATS +/-: -2.6
DET
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.5
ATS +/-: -2.6
DET
0-3-1
(0.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +6.9
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
WSH
DET
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
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