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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

23-21  |  Road

121
FINAL
Thu, Jan 23 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

36-7  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
MAVERICKS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Oklahoma City)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

27.4%

Thunder Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DAL By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAL By 8-14 points

6.8%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
112.07
DALLAS
118.09
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
114
DALLAS
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 OKC @ DAL 100 - 87
Dec 5, 2025 DAL @ OKC 111 - 132
Oct 27, 2025 OKC @ DAL 101 - 94
Oct 6, 2025 OKC @ DAL 89 - 106
Jan 23, 2025 DAL @ OKC 121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +33.2% more
Oklahoma City: 11.0 vs Dallas: 8.3
Assists (L5) +11.1% more
Oklahoma City: 26.4 vs Dallas: 23.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Oklahoma City: 37.5% vs Dallas: 29.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
Oklahoma City: 87.6% vs Dallas: 80.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 112.1 121
OKC Score 118.1 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 29.2 40.5 / 45.2
Assists 26.4 / 23.8 26.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.2 / 5.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 47.0 47.7 / 52.7
Free Throw % 87.6 / 80.1 72.7 / 80.6
Rebounding 41.9 / 42.6 33.0 / 43.0
Steals 11.0 / 8.3 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 14.9 13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DAL
OKC
DAL
ML
70% 80-34
62% 63-39
48% 46-49
54% 44-37
ATS
73% 83-30-1
67% 68-34
48% 46-49
54% 44-37
TTL
67% 76-38
59% 60-41-1
100% 95-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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