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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

36-8  |  Road

118
FINAL
Sun, Jan 26 • 6:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

17-28  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
THUNDER --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.1
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.1 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

95.7%

Trail Blazers Cover

4.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -17.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

12.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

22.9%

POR By 1-7 points

3.2%

POR By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
121.95
OKLAHOMA CITY
104.82
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
105
OKLAHOMA CITY
120
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.1
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 124
Nov 30, 2025 OKC @ POR 123 - 115
Nov 23, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 122
Nov 5, 2025 OKC @ POR 119 - 121
Mar 7, 2025 POR @ OKC 89 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +18.3% more
Oklahoma City: 26.3 vs Portland: 21.5
Free Throw % (L5) +12.5%
Oklahoma City: 82.6% vs Portland: 70.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Oklahoma City: 38.5% vs Portland: 31.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Oklahoma City: 48.3% vs Portland: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 122.0 118
POR Score 104.8 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 38.5 45.0 / 33.3
Assists 21.5 / 26.3 21.0 / 24.0
Blocks 7.1 / 4.2 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 48.3 40.7 / 47.2
Free Throw % 70.1 / 82.6 85.7 / 82.8
Rebounding 45.0 / 39.0 44.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.7 / 10.3 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 12.5 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
OKC
POR
OKC
ML
53% 56-49
70% 80-34
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
ATS
62% 65-39-1
73% 83-30-1
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
TTL
56% 58-46-1
67% 76-38
100% 89-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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