SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
24-23 | Road
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
37-9 | Home
144
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
THUNDER
0%
KINGS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -7.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
SAC By 1-7 points
13.9%
SAC By 8-14 points
4.9%
OKC By 1-7 points
25.4%
OKC By 8-14 points
26.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
116.09
SACRAMENTO
Oklahoma City
123.99
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Sacramento
111
SACRAMENTO
Oklahoma City
116
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.9
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 240.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
SAC @ OKC
99 - 113
Nov 7, 2025
OKC @ SAC
132 - 101
Oct 28, 2025
SAC @ OKC
101 - 107
Mar 25, 2025
OKC @ SAC
121 - 105
Feb 1, 2025
SAC @ OKC
110 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+44.4% more
Oklahoma City: 8.8
vs
Sacramento: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Oklahoma City: 81.8%
vs
Sacramento: 79.2%
Assists (L5)
+23.9% more
Sacramento: 31.6
vs
Oklahoma City: 24.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Sacramento: 48.1%
vs
Oklahoma City: 45.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
116.1
110
OKC Score
124.0
144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 31.9
41.3 / 25.0
Assists
24.0 / 31.6
37.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.3
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 48.1
53.3 / 40.0
Free Throw %
81.8 / 79.2
68.8 / 73.1
Rebounding
43.5 / 44.9
70.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.8 / 6.1
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 13.1
12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SAC
OKC
SAC
ML
70%
80-34
55%
55-45
48%
46-49
61%
50-32
ATS
73%
83-30-1
54%
52-45-3
48%
46-49
61%
50-32
TTL
67%
76-38
58%
57-42-1
100%
95-0
100%
82-0
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