PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
25-24 | Road
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
39-9 | Home
140
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
THUNDER
0%
SUNS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.7
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.7 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -11.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
PHX By 1-7 points
8.4%
PHX By 8-14 points
2.3%
OKC By 1-7 points
20.6%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
114.11
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
125.83
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Phoenix
114
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.7
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+27.0% more
Oklahoma City: 53.2
vs
Phoenix: 41.9
Turnovers (L5)
+12.7% more
Phoenix: 15.8
vs
Oklahoma City: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
114.1
109
OKC Score
125.8
140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 37.2
28.6 / 38.9
Assists
28.2 / 27.9
24.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.5
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 48.4
51.0 / 47.1
Free Throw %
80.8 / 81.3
88.9 / 87.9
Rebounding
53.2 / 41.9
46.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.0 / 8.3
15.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 15.8
6.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHX
OKC
PHX
ML
70%
80-34
57%
60-45
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
59-43-3
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
TTL
67%
76-38
59%
61-42-2
100%
95-0
100%
88-0
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