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TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

16-35  |  Road

109
FINAL
Fri, Feb 7 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

40-9  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
RAPTORS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Oklahoma City)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

31.3%

Thunder Cover

68.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

TOR By 1-7 points

18.8%

TOR By 8-14 points

8.2%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

22.8%

AI Model Projected Score
117.76
TORONTO
122.62
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
TORONTO
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 240.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 OKC @ TOR 116 - 107
Jan 25, 2026 TOR @ OKC 103 - 101
Feb 7, 2025 TOR @ OKC 109 - 121
Dec 5, 2024 OKC @ TOR 129 - 92
Mar 22, 2024 OKC @ TOR 123 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +32.6% more
Oklahoma City: 50.8 vs Toronto: 38.3
Steals (L5) +20.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.4 vs Toronto: 8.6
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Oklahoma City: 49.8% vs Toronto: 46.3%
Turnovers (L5) +8.5% more
Toronto: 12.2 vs Oklahoma City: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 117.8 109
OKC Score 122.6 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 36.0 29.0 / 46.3
Assists 26.8 / 28.7 26.0 / 31.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.4 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 46.3 51.2 / 42.9
Free Throw % 83.5 / 85.4 83.9 / 63.2
Rebounding 50.8 / 38.3 44.0 / 42.0
Steals 10.4 / 8.6 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 12.2 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
TOR
OKC
TOR
ML
70% 80-34
55% 57-47
48% 46-49
55% 48-39
ATS
73% 83-30-1
61% 62-40-2
48% 46-49
55% 48-39
TTL
67% 76-38
60% 62-42
100% 95-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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