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MIAMI

HEATMIA

25-26  |  Road

101
FINAL
Wed, Feb 12 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

43-9  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
HEAT --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Oklahoma City)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

37.3%

Thunder Cover

62.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MIA By 1-7 points

21.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

10.4%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.5%

AI Model Projected Score
115.21
MIAMI
118.44
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
105
MIAMI
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 233.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 OKC @ MIA 120 - 122
Jan 11, 2026 MIA @ OKC 112 - 124
Feb 12, 2025 MIA @ OKC 101 - 115
Dec 20, 2024 OKC @ MIA 104 - 97
Mar 8, 2024 MIA @ OKC 100 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +124.4% more
Oklahoma City: 10.7 vs Miami: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +75.1% more
Oklahoma City: 6.1 vs Miami: 3.5
Assists (L5) +14.6% more
Oklahoma City: 27.9 vs Miami: 24.4
Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Oklahoma City: 49.1% vs Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 115.2 101
OKC Score 118.4 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 31.6 38.5 / 32.4
Assists 27.9 / 24.4 22.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.1 / 3.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 40.0 48.9 / 45.6
Free Throw % 80.2 / 84.0 70.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 48.8 / 47.0 41.0 / 45.0
Steals 10.7 / 4.8 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 12.0 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIA
OKC
MIA
ML
70% 80-34
48% 46-50
48% 46-49
59% 48-34
ATS
73% 83-30-1
51% 49-47
48% 46-49
59% 48-34
TTL
67% 76-38
59% 57-39
100% 95-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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