OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
47-11 | Road
135
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
27-32 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
HAWKS
100%
THUNDER
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
246.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
26.7%
OKC By 8-14 points
18.1%
ATL By 1-7 points
23.4%
ATL By 8-14 points
12.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
124.06
OKLAHOMA CITY
Atlanta
122.32
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Atlanta
122
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 246.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
ATL @ OKC
129 - 140
Oct 25, 2025
OKC @ ATL
117 - 100
Feb 28, 2025
OKC @ ATL
135 - 119
Oct 27, 2024
ATL @ OKC
104 - 128
Oct 17, 2024
ATL @ OKC
99 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.1% more
Oklahoma City: 6.4
vs
Atlanta: 4.0
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Oklahoma City: 46.6
vs
Atlanta: 41.7
Steals (L5)
+9.8% more
Oklahoma City: 9.5
vs
Atlanta: 8.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Oklahoma City: 81.3%
vs
Atlanta: 75.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
124.1
135
ATL Score
122.3
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 36.0
41.7 / 46.0
Assists
29.4 / 28.6
27.0 / 37.0
Blocks
4.0 / 6.4
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 49.4
48.9 / 50.5
Free Throw %
75.1 / 81.3
78.3 / 83.3
Rebounding
41.7 / 46.6
46.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.5
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 11.7
19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
OKC
ATL
OKC
ML
50%
52-52
70%
80-34
55%
48-40
48%
46-49
ATS
53%
55-48-1
73%
83-30-1
55%
48-40
48%
46-49
TTL
53%
55-48-1
67%
76-38
100%
88-0
100%
95-0
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