Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Thunder HOU @ OKC

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

37-23  |  Road

128
FINAL
Mon, Mar 3 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

49-11  |  Home

137
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
ROCKETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Oklahoma City)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

25.7%

Thunder Cover

74.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

HOU By 1-7 points

16.1%

HOU By 8-14 points

6.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.5%

OKC By 8-14 points

24.9%

AI Model Projected Score
115.33
HOUSTON
121.86
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
107
HOUSTON
123
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.5
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 HOU @ OKC 112 - 106
Jan 15, 2026 OKC @ HOU 111 - 91
Oct 21, 2025 HOU @ OKC 124 - 125
Apr 4, 2025 OKC @ HOU 111 - 125
Mar 3, 2025 HOU @ OKC 128 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.7% more
Oklahoma City: 8.8 vs Houston: 5.8
Assists (L5) +52.0% more
Oklahoma City: 32.3 vs Houston: 21.2
Blocks (L5) +17.4% more
Oklahoma City: 5.1 vs Houston: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5) +11.7%
Oklahoma City: 83.0% vs Houston: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 115.3 128
OKC Score 121.9 137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 35.2 45.9 / 45.7
Assists 32.3 / 21.2 31.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.3 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 51.3 / 44.1 49.5 / 48.5
Free Throw % 83.0 / 71.3 88.9 / 82.4
Rebounding 45.3 / 49.3 49.0 / 49.0
Steals 8.8 / 5.8 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 15.4 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
HOU
OKC
HOU
ML
70% 80-34
61% 69-44
48% 46-49
59% 51-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
62% 70-43
48% 46-49
59% 51-35
TTL
67% 76-38
51% 58-55
100% 95-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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