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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

50-11  |  Road

120
FINAL
Wed, Mar 5 • 9:30 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

38-23  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
THUNDER --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

83.8%

Grizzlies Cover

16.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -9.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

23.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

MEM By 1-7 points

10.9%

MEM By 8-14 points

3.4%

AI Model Projected Score
130.3
OKLAHOMA CITY
120.43
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
105
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.9
D
Sim Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 250.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 OKC @ MEM 117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025 MEM @ OKC 103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025 OKC @ MEM 117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.6% more
Oklahoma City: 9.5 vs Memphis: 6.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.0%
Oklahoma City: 42.4% vs Memphis: 32.4%
Blocks (L5) +8.9% more
Oklahoma City: 5.4 vs Memphis: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +48.1% more
Memphis: 16.5 vs Oklahoma City: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 130.3 120
MEM Score 120.4 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 42.4 26.5 / 41.7
Assists 31.3 / 31.8 21.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.9 / 5.4 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 50.7 40.7 / 50.6
Free Throw % 87.6 / 85.0 90.9 / 89.5
Rebounding 44.7 / 46.5 49.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.6 / 9.5 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 11.1 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
OKC
MEM
OKC
ML
57% 59-44
70% 80-34
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38
73% 83-30-1
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
TTL
70% 71-31-1
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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