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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

28-35  |  Road

89
FINAL
Fri, Mar 7 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

51-11  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Oklahoma City)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

17.0%

Thunder Cover

83.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

POR By 1-7 points

11.3%

POR By 8-14 points

3.6%

OKC By 1-7 points

23.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.1%

AI Model Projected Score
120
PORTLAND
129.54
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 249.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 124
Nov 30, 2025 OKC @ POR 123 - 115
Nov 23, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 122
Nov 5, 2025 OKC @ POR 119 - 121
Mar 7, 2025 POR @ OKC 89 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.9% more
Oklahoma City: 9.7 vs Portland: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +24.6% more
Oklahoma City: 4.9 vs Portland: 4.0
Assists (L5) +24.1% more
Oklahoma City: 30.2 vs Portland: 24.4
Free Throw % (L5) +15.1%
Oklahoma City: 86.5% vs Portland: 71.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 120.0 89
OKC Score 129.5 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.2 / 36.5 36.8 / 18.6
Assists 30.2 / 24.4 25.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.0 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 48.7 46.4 / 34.7
Free Throw % 86.5 / 71.4 88.2 / 83.3
Rebounding 44.0 / 46.2 43.0 / 53.0
Steals 9.7 / 6.9 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 13.4 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
POR
OKC
POR
ML
70% 80-34
53% 56-49
48% 46-49
55% 49-40
ATS
73% 83-30-1
62% 65-39-1
48% 46-49
55% 49-40
TTL
67% 76-38
56% 58-46-1
100% 95-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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